NWSL/NCAA – Four Factors Analysis – Class of 2015

(For methodology notes, check earlier post for 2016-2018 classes.)

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OK, there’s obviously a lot to digest here.

As far as the top prospects are concerned, there are a hell of a lot them with serious red flags, save the Queen of Queens, Dagny Brynjarsdottir, who is, sadly, taking her talents to Germany. Brynjarsdottir pretty much aces every category, with the most questions perhaps coming in the shot per goal category…which is forgivable since she’s an attacking midfielder and not a center forward.

Sam Mewis is also reasonably impressive considering she’s technically a playmaker, while Shea Groom could be a more jack of all trades in midfield and on the wing, even with somewhat disappointing numbers in shot on goal percentage. The other highly sought after attacking midfielder, Morgan Brian, is solid everywhere but shot on goal percentage, where her 27.1% number is either deeply concerning or the mother of all statistical anomalies. Either way, there’s little evidence Brian isn’t worthy of the #1 pick, as her talents stretch beyond just these numbers.

In terms of the top level pure forwards, Lynn Williams gets the tentative nod, though she’s right in the middle of these rankings. Williams was able to do the business against top opposition, but her efficiency numbers are alarming, including a very troubling shot per goal rate that hovers near ten. That’s still a site better than Chioma Ubogagu’s shocking rate of one goal per almost thirteen shots, easily the worst rate by some margin of this class. While Sofia Huerta’s numbers are passable efficiency-wise, her inability to do the business against top teams is a giant red flag for anyone thinking about drafting her very early.

There are some definite mid-level prospects worth investing in via these numbers, with La Salle’s Kelsey Haycook chief amongst them. La Salle may be a mid-major, but Haycook still was one of just five seniors to score eleven goals against RPI Top 100 teams, though she netted just two against RPI Top 50 teams. Haycook was tremendously efficient though, helping propel her up these rankings. There’s also an eye towards Kelley Monogue, who scored a ridiculous eleven goals against RPI Top 50 teams, and Tatiana Coleman, who was solid in every category. Rachel Tejada was another who ticked almost every box, while Cara Walls would surely be much higher if not for her awful shot on goal percentage.

Attacking midfielder is loaded in this class, and that may see the draft stock of Lo’eau Labonta and Daphne Corboz both sink a bit. LaBonta was clutch with her scoring but packs awful efficiency numbers, while Corboz is in the same efficiency boat without the big-time goals. In another year, both may fit as mid-round prospects, but considering those ahead of them, they might slip towards the end of this year’s draft.

Deep sleepers? Texas A&M’s Allie Bailey is the top-ranked prospect in these rankings and is definitely worth a late-round flyer. Vanessa Skrumbis and Emory Camper aren’t likely to hear their name called next Friday but certainly look to be worth a look for East Coast clubs like Washington needing to find players for their preseason roster. That might also be a way in for the likes of Washington’s Jaclyn Softli, who enjoyed a great senior season for an overachieving UW side, and Seattle’s Stephanie Verdoia, who chewed up bad defenses at will.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized on by Chris Henderson.

One thought on “NWSL/NCAA – Four Factors Analysis – Class of 2015

  1. smallchief

    As you correctly point out, those stats make you wonder about the highly touted forwards in the draft.


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