Projected Mountain West Table

1. San Jose State
2. Utah State
3. Boise State
4. San Diego State
5. Colorado College
6. UNLV
–
7. Air Force
8. New Mexico
9. Colorado State
10. Nevada
11. Wyoming
12. Fresno State

Once one of the Mountain West’s great underachievers, San Jose State has turned into one of the conference’s top clubs. Lauren Hanson’s side has now put together three straight winning seasons and finished last season with their most wins (12) since 2010. The Spartans struggled out of the gate last season against some tough opposition, but SJSU eventually put up five straight wins, including their first three in the league. After a brief hiccup, SJSU finished with six straight victories in the league, enough to see them win the Mountain West title by five points. That made the shootout loss to New Mexico in the conference tournament semi-final all the more shocking. While SJSU had had a good season, their resume wasn’t going to merit an at-large bid, as their season ended rather disappointingly.

With seven starters and some fine talent back, the Spartans appear well poised to be in the hunt for more trophies though. There are some rather big departures that SJSU has to compensate for. German Dorthe Hoppius played both as a center-forward and attacking midfielder, mainly at the latter last year and scored a handful of goals with a handful of assists, though that goal total dipped a bit from her two previous seasons. Also gone on offense is Yaritza Arista, the central midfielder having led the club in assists with six last season. The defense also faces some big losses, with Canadian center-back Myia Wilkes the biggest of them, while wide-defender Sabrina Miller also graduates.

The club’s top returning star is likely to be senior Darriell Franklin, a utility player who can slot in just about everywhere on the pitch. Franklin slotted in at center-back a lot last season but also saw time as a center-forward and even as a central midfielder and will be the focus of attention wherever she lines up at. The scoring threat is likely going to have to come from Jamilecxth Becerra, who was a hit here as a sophomore last year, leading the team with seven goals despite starting just eight games leading the line last year.

Elsewhere, it will be interesting to see if Kristen Amarikwa can turn things around after a sophomore slump following a huge rookie season here. Amarikwa played center-back brilliantly as a rookie but was in midfield for much of last season to much less effect. Senior Jennifer Orozco is another who could have a flexible role this season after playing both as a winger and wing-back/full-back last season for the Spartans. Finally, SJSU should be in good hands in between the posts, with proven veteran Paige Simoneau back in goal for the Spartans.

San Jose State looks to be tops of an unpredictable Mountain West this season with a combo of experience, talent, and solid coaching. They likely won’t run away with it like last season, but the Spartans still look like the league’s best club in 2018. Continue reading →

Podcast below the table. 2019 Big Board hopefully out sometime before the end of civilization.

Runaway NWSL leaders North Carolina scored an early goal and then held off a barrage of offense by visiting French juggernaut Lyon to claim a priceless 1-0 win in the final of the inaugural Women’s International Champions Cup.

North Carolina (left) vs Lyon (right) team stats

North Carolina (blue) vs Lyon (white) shots

North Carolina (blue) vs Lyon (white) key passes

Woman of the Match – Sabrina D’Angelo (NC)

0 goals conceded
5 saves
3 “big” saves
1 aerial challenge won (out of 1)
0 key mistakes

D’Angelo starting this match raised some eyebrows. Not because of the Canadian’s performance this season, as she was one of the NWSL’s best keepers when she began the year as North Carolina’s starter. But Katelyn Rowland eventually returned to the starting job and was in between the pipes for the semi-final win in this tournament. D’Angelo repaid the faith shown in her with a big showing, making five saves in the clean sheet win, including some big ones while also avoiding key mistakes. Ironically, D’Angelo’s distribution, normally a strength, wasn’t on par on this night, as she completed just 63% of her passes.

D’Angelo shots saved

The United States won the Tournament of Nations with a bravura second half performance that saw them overpower a disappointing Brazil side to claim the trophy on goal differential over Australia.

USA (left) vs Brazil (right) stats

USA (white) vs Brazil (yellow) shots

USA (white) vs Brazil (yellow) key passes

Woman of The Match – Tobin Heath (USA)

1 goal
1 assist
2 shots (1 on-target)
85% pass completion (29 passes)
3 key passes
2 crosses complete (out of 4)
6 challenges won (out of 11)
1 aerial challenge won (out of 1)
2 dribbles successful
1 tackle won (out of 1)
3 ball recoveries
1 foul won

Heath was an absolute offensive machine in this one, combining with her USA teammates to slice apart a brittle Brazilian defense. In addition to the goal and the assist, Heath completed a high percentage of her passes, including three key ones. While Heath wasn’t asked to win a ton of challenges, she still did her fair share to keep the Americans on the front foot. In this form, Heath can be devastating against any international opposition, and this was a scintillating display.

Heath passes complete

Heath key passes

Projected Sun Belt Standings

1. Little Rock
2. Arkansas State
3. South Alabama
4. Texas State
5. Coastal Carolina
6. Louisiana-Monroe
7. Louisiana-Lafayette
8. Troy
–
9. Georgia State
10. Georgia Southern
11. Appalachian State

Little Rock was probably hoping for big things coming into 2017 after winning twelve games and finishing #92 in the RPI a year prior. After a middling non-conference season though, the Trojans stumbled out of the gate in the league, picking up just one point in their first two Sun Belt games. They’d heat up a little more as the league season drew to a close, but they wouldn’t do enough to rise above fifth in the final league table. UALR would overcome Arkansas State on penalties in the quarterfinal of the conference tournament but were then mauled by South Alabama in the semis.

In an ironic twist, an assistant from that South Alabama team, Mark Foster, is the new head coach here after Adrian Blewitt left for the Army West Point job. He inherits a pretty good situation, as Little Rock have a team, on paper, that should challenge for a league title. Not that there aren’t going to be challenges. The Trojans lose three starters, including some big hitters. The biggest departure is Quin Wilkes, a forward who scored four goals and added three assists last season in her senior campaign. They also face the unexpected loss of the club’s top two goalkeepers Megan Swanson and Kate Hamilton. It means UALR is likely going to have to rely on a rookie in goal, with Iceland’s Sara Johannsdottir and Sweden’s Hilma Svalander having joined in the offseason.

Among the returnees, Spanish forward Arola Aparicio Gili will be one to watch for Little Rock. Capable as a winger or centrally, Gili only scored three times last season but is still very influential to the Trojans’ game. The scoring may come from German junior Doro Greulich, an absolute machine in midfield who was the team’s leading scorer by some distance last season with eight goals. UALR also adds more international class with Icelandic youth international midfielder Fanney Einarsdottir the crown jewel of this recruiting class, while German Maeve Burger also joins as a transfer from Butler.

There’s German star power on the backline as well, as the colossal Liesa Seifert is one of the tallest field players in college soccer at 6’1” and is one of the best center-backs in the Sun Belt, especially in the air. Also on the backline could be Jaclyn Purvine, an extremely versatile player that can play either full-back spot or either spot on the wing in the attack.

Teams with new managers are rarely predictable, but Foster looks to be in as desirable a situation as any new boss in 2018. They look like league favorites in my projections and should, at the very least, be in the mix for honors in the Sun Belt. Continue reading →

Projected Patriot League Standings

1. Boston University
2. Colgate
3. Navy
4. Lehigh
5. Holy Cross
6. Army West Point
–
7. Bucknell
8. Lafayette
9. Loyola (MD)
10. American

Boston University again pushed themselves with a brutally difficult non-conference schedule last year and were only marginally better with than they were in 2016, where they lost their first nine. BU did manage to beat Northeastern and draw the two Arizona schools in the Pac-12, but this was still a program that needed to get into league play to truly hit its stride. The Terriers were more than solid in the Patriot League, but they did drop enough points to slip to third in the final table, forcing them into the quarterfinals of the conference tournament, where they topped Lafayette. But BU’s bogey team, Bucknell were waiting in the semi-final and beat them once again, the fourth straight loss the Terriers have suffered to Bucknell since beating them in the final of the 2015 Patriot League Tournament.

But after a few years that might be considered “rebuilding” seasons here, the Terriers look ready to roll towards silverware this season. While BU does lose four starters, their returning talent dwarfs that of most of the rest of the league. The biggest departure comes on defense, where center-back Rachel Bloznalis graduates after a fine career that culminated with a superb senior season. The offense isn’t unscathed though, as Christina Wakefield, who tied for most goals here last season with five, also graduates. Also gone are central midfielder Jesse Shreck (who led the team in assists with five) and Bloznalis’ center-back partner, Alivya Wimmer.

With little in the way of proven scoring back, this might be a BU side that rides with its defense. The club’s best returning player is likely defensive midfielder Julianna Chen, who has been a stalwart here for three seasons. Her partner in central midfield, Dorrie Varley-Barrett is also a standout, meaning BU’s central midfield could be one of their strongest areas this season.

The backline itself does have to replace both starting center-backs, as noted above, and BU will likely be banking on right-back Libby Closson to be the leader of the defense this season after a strong finish to last season. Unsurprisingly, BU’s gone big on defensive recruits in this class, with Kate Collins and Elle Conlin shortlisted as two to watch. In goal, Amanda Fay won the starting job in the middle of last season, but the sophomore could find her position under threat thanks to the addition of another top recruit, Morgan Messner.

The Terriers will likely be desperate for some improved offense, with nobody here netting more than five goals last year. Winger McKenna Doyle led the club in shots last season (41) but also netted just three goals, though she did net six as a rookie in 2015. The best hope may be for continued excellence from sophomore left-winger Anna Heilferty, who scored five goals as a rookie and even played a little left-back for the U.S. U19 team in some offseason friendlies.

Even with some losses, BU still looks to have their best team in a few years and should be favored to reach Patriot League glory this season. Continue reading →

Projected Horizon League Standings

1. Wright State
2. Milwaukee
3. IUPUI
4. Illinois-Chicago
5. Cleveland State
6. Northern Kentucky
–
7. Detroit
8. Youngstown State
9. Oakland
10. Green Bay

There were few hotter teams at the end of the Horizon League season last year than Wright State. The Raiders came into the postseason having won their last three and four of five to rise all the way up to fourth in the conference table after some nervy moments earlier in conference play. WSU would sweep aside Illinois-Chicago in the quarterfinal but found themselves topped by Milwaukee in the semis.

The good news for the Raiders is that they return eight starters, tied for most in the conference, and look like legitimate title contenders. WSU do have a couple of big losses to overcome though. The biggest of those is center-back Niki Romero, who was a huge contributor here for three seasons after transferring from North Carolina. The other notable departure is winger Sarah Colvin, who had a breakthrough as a senior to finish as the leading scorer here with seven goals.

On offense, with Colvin’s graduation, it looks like Aaliyah Patten will be the new focal point for the attack. Last year as a right-winger, Patten tied for the team lead in assists with seven while also knocking in three goals despite missing three matches. There will be increased opportunities for Mattie Cutts, the club’s main center-forward who is the joint returning leading scorer having netted four last year.

There’s a little less certainty on the defensive side of the ball. Andrea Gomez scored a few goals but is most valuable as a shield in defensive midfield in front of the backline. Erin Graefen’s a little more of an offensive option in deep midfield, also having netted a few goals last year.

While losing Romero and Colvin really hurt, many other Horizon League sides face just as many big losses. If they can find a new leader on the backline and get Patten and Cutts to tick upward a little bit with their goals, there’s no reason the Raiders can’t be in the mix for trophies at season’s end. Continue reading →